A hung Parliament, yes: but hung by how much?  

As 2010 hoves into view, the likely result of the election is already becoming a good deal clearer. For many months the polls have continued to flip-flop around a Tory lead of 6-17% depending on the poll methodology, the inbuilt biases of certain polls and the impact of the most recent events. Most polls show the lead at over 10%, and an average Tory lead at this time averaging around 10-12% seems plausible. Now the regular Rallings-Thrasher survey monitoring local by-election results month by month - likely if averaged across the whole country and over a long period of time to offer a more accurate register of electoral opinion - confirms this background and suggests how it may now be beginning to change. Whilst the Tory local byelection tally has averaged around 38% through the first half of 2009 and Labour around 24%, plus the Lib Dems vote showing wider fluctuations...